Strategic planning
Mostafa Teimoori; Seyed Mehdi Mirdamadi; Seyed Jamal Farajollah Hosseini
Volume 9, Issue 2 , Spring 2019, , Pages 107-118
Abstract
The purpose of the present study was the simulation of climate change effects on groundwater resources in Iran by using the dynamic systems approach. The approach was performed through system dynamics modeling process including problem explanation, system description, model development, model testing, ...
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The purpose of the present study was the simulation of climate change effects on groundwater resources in Iran by using the dynamic systems approach. The approach was performed through system dynamics modeling process including problem explanation, system description, model development, model testing, and the use of the model for policy analysis. The impact of the application of various exogenous scenarios including drought scenarios, management of water supply and population growth was assessed and the behavior of variables of water resources volume and per capita volume of renewable water of the Southern Khorasan province was simulated by Vensim software for the 2013-2041 period. Data were collected by referring to relevant organizations like South Khorasan Regional Water Organization, South Khorasan Agricultural Organization, and Statistical Center of Iran and the input data of the model were fed into the model in an Excel worksheet. The results showed that the water resource exploitation management scenario had a significant positive effect on the balance of aquifers of South Khorasan Province so that the balance of the province aquifers in the scenario of controlling water resources exploitation has been significantly different from the scenario of the lack of control of different drought in all the studied years. In addition, the results of examination of the province's renewable water showed that droughts have had a negative impact on the volume of renewable water of the province and droughts together with population growth have reduced the province per capita renewable water.
Maryam Bagheri; Mehrdad Nikanami; Hossein Shabanali Fami
Volume 5, Issue 4 , Autumn 2015, , Pages 313-320
Abstract
The extent of utilization of drought management practices by the farmers of Tafresh County was studied in a descriptive-correlational research. Statistical population consisted of all farmers in Tafresh County which summed up to around 9061 people out of which 300 farmers were taken as the sample in ...
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The extent of utilization of drought management practices by the farmers of Tafresh County was studied in a descriptive-correlational research. Statistical population consisted of all farmers in Tafresh County which summed up to around 9061 people out of which 300 farmers were taken as the sample in accordance with Cochran’s formula. The main tool of the study was a questionnaire. The validity of the questionnaire was confirmed by a panel of expert consisting of some faculty members of Islamic Azad University, GarmsarBranch and the University of Tehran, and the reliability of the questionnaire was estimated as to be 0.848 using Cronbach Alpha. The results of correlation test indicated a direct, significant relationship between the extent of utilization of drought management practices and the variables of agricultural activities experience and the level of farmers’ social capabilities at 0.01 level. Moreover, there was a negative significant relationship among age, farming experience and the application of drought management practices at 0.01 level. Finally, the results of multiple regression analysis showed that three variables, i.e. extent of farmers’ social capabilities, experience of agricultural activities and the age of the farmers, had the greatest influence on the extent of utilization of drought management practices.
Mojtaba Sookhtanlo; Hesamedin Gholami; Seyyed Reza Es’haghi
Volume 3, Issue 4 , Autumn 2013, , Pages 227-236
Abstract
Identification and analysis of farmers’ vulnerability associated with their risk aversion degree is one of the necessary requirements for planning and reducing impacts of drought in Iran. So, this study was investigated three risk vulnerability parameters (economic, social and technical) among ...
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Identification and analysis of farmers’ vulnerability associated with their risk aversion degree is one of the necessary requirements for planning and reducing impacts of drought in Iran. So, this study was investigated three risk vulnerability parameters (economic, social and technical) among wheat farmers categorized in accordance with their risk aversion degree in the Mashhad County (Iran) between drought years of 2009-2011. Vulnerability parameters were determined by Delphi technique. For measuring vulnerability and risk aversion degree, formula of Me-Bar and Valdes and method of Safety First Rule were applied respectively. Findings revealed that in social vulnerability indicators; education level, collaboratively farming activities and dependency on government and in technical vulnerability; irrigation method, cultivation method and type of cultivation; risk averse farmers have had the highest vulnerability level under drought conditions. While respecting economic vulnerability, risk neutral farmers (in insuring for crops, sale prices of crops and the type of land ownership), have had the highest vulnerability level.
Hamid Devisti; Mohamad Karim Moetamed
Volume 1, Issue 2 , Spring 2011, , Pages 73-79
Abstract
The purpose of this study was to survey impacts of drought on Socio-economic conditions of Guilan Paddy farmers. Besides recognizing these impacts, it ranked them according to the viewpoint of the Paddy farmers. It was of the descriptive- correlation type. Questionnaire was the main tool of this study. ...
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The purpose of this study was to survey impacts of drought on Socio-economic conditions of Guilan Paddy farmers. Besides recognizing these impacts, it ranked them according to the viewpoint of the Paddy farmers. It was of the descriptive- correlation type. Questionnaire was the main tool of this study. To determine the validity of questionnaire used of comments of panel experts and reliability of the questionnaire by using of Cronbach's alpha coefficient was 89%. The information gathered by using the survey method. The statistical population was the farmers whom their basic career was production of rice and according to the information of Agricultural Organization (Jihad-e-Keshavarzi) in 2009 was caught by drought. By using the proportional stratified sample method, 270 of these individuals were chosen and filled in the questionnaires. In order to determine the scale of drought impacts, year 2008 (a year which paddy farmers had ensured water reservoir) compared to year 2009 (a year which paddy farmers were caught by drought and water shortage). The results indicated that drought caused decrease in white-rice production for 312 kg per hectare. This problem also caused increase in costs, decrease in income, decrease in saved money, and increase in anxiety, mental problems etc on Guilan paddy farmers. Other findings indicated that there hasn't been statistically significant relationship between age and farming experience of paddy farmers with the amount of damage. But, there was statistically significant relationship between literacy, type of water resource and taking extension advices with amount of damage.
