The PhD students of Agricultural Economics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran


In this study, the situation of Iran, U.S and Turkey's Pistachio export is investigated. to this purpose, Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) Index is calculated based on Agricultural and total economy export, separately, then forecasted by using Auto- Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) approached, for 2008-2013. The results show that considering both commodity baskets, Turkey and Iran had comparative advantage in Pistachio export in 1982-2007, but U.S did not. Also, forecasting RCA index, based on both commodity baskets, show the improvement of U.S Pistachio export situation, unlike the values of RCA index forecasting for Iran and Turkey is falling. Therefore, it is recommended that Iran and Turkey attempt to identify new consumer markets in order to retain their market shares in pistachio export. Following the U.S imposed policies during last six years which improved its pistachio export, Iran and Turkey can increase their market shares.


1- Ashrafi, M., and Karbasi, A. R., and Sadr AlAshrafi, S. M. (2007). Production and export comparativeadvantage of raisins in Iran, Journal ofagricultural economics and development, Vol 15,No 58, pp. 39-59
2- AnvyehTekyeh, L. (2007). the study of comparativeadvantage of Iran’s apple export in comparison tothe other apple exporter countries, Journal of agriculturaleconomics and development, Vol 15, No58, pp. 177-203
3- Azizi, J., and Yazdani, S. (2006). InvestigatingExport market of Iran apple emphasized on theprinciple of comparative advantage export, Journalof Construction and Research in Agriculture andHorticulture, Vol 73, pp. 145-155
4- Balassa, B. (1965). Trade Liberalization and RevealedComparative Advantage, School of Economicsand Social Studies, Manchester, 33, pp 99-123.
5- Beghin, J., and Fang, C. (2000). Self-sufficiency,Comparative Advantages, and Agricultural Trade:A Policy Analysis Matrix for Chinese Agricultural,Iowa Agricultural Review on Line, Vol 6, Issue 4.
6- Brath. A., and Montanari, A., and Toth, E. (2002).Neural networks and non-parametric methods forimproving real-tim flood forecasting through conceptualhydrological models, Hydrology and EarthSystem Sciences, Vol 6, No 4, pp. 627-640
7- Chu, C. W., and Zhang, G. P. (2003). A comparativestudy of linear and nonlinear models for aggregateretail sales forecasting, International Journal ProductionEconomics, Vol 86, pp. 217-231
8- Fathi, Y. (2002). an analysis of the comparativeadvantage of food industries in Iran, Journal of agriculturaleconomics and development, Vol 2, No 38,pp. 129-154.
9- Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). (2008).Web page <>.
10- Hillman, A . (1980). Observations on TheRelation between Revealed Comparative Advantageand Comparative Advantage as indicated by PretradeRelative Price, Weltwirl schaftliches Archive,116. pp, 315-321.
11- Henry C, C., and Boosarawongse, R. (2007).Forecasting Thailand’s rice export: Statistical tech-niques vs. Artificial neural networks. Computers &Industrial Engineering 53, pp. 610â€"627
12- Heravi, S., and Osorn, D. R., and Birchenhall,C. R. (2004). Liner versus neural network forecastsfor European industrial production series. InternationalJournal Forecasting, Vol 20, pp. 435-446
13- Liesner H, H. (1958). the European CommonMarket and British Industry, Economic Journal, Vol68, pp. 302-316.
14- Mehrabi Boshrabadi, H. (2002). Review offactor influencing Iran’s share in the world pistachiomarket, Journal of agricultural economics and development,Vol 10, No. 3, pp. 85-102
15- Mehrabi Boshrabadi, H. (2007). Production relationsand technical inefficiency in pistachio farmingsystems in Kerman province of Iran, Journal ofForest, Trees and Livelihoods, Vol 17, pp 141-155
16- Mehrabi Boshrabadi, H. and Neshat, A. (2010).Investigation of effective factors to Iran’s comparativeadvantage in pistachio export and ranking of itstarget markets, Journal of Trade Studies, articles inpress, In Persian
17- Pakrava, M. R., and Mehrabi Boshrabadi, H.,and Gilanpour, O. (2010). Studying Iranian pistachioexport position: Comparative advantage and tradingmap approach, Journal of agricultural economicsand development, article in press, In Persian
18- Pour Moghim, S. J. (2007). International trade:theory and commercial policies, Edit 11, publishingof Nashr-e-Ney.
19- Utkulu, U., and Seymen, D. (2004). revealedComparative Advantage and Competitiveness: Evidencefor Turkey vis-à-vis the EU/15, to be presentedat the European trade study Group 6th Annual Conference,ETSG 2004, Nottingham, September 2004.
20- Yeats, A. (1985). on the appropriate interpretationof the Revealed comparative advantage index: Implicationsof a methodology based on industry sectoranalysis, Weltwirtschaftliches Archive, 121, pp. 61-73.
21- Zou, H.F., and Xiaa, G.P. , and Yangc, F.T., andWang, H.Y. (2007). An investigation and comparisonof artificial neural network and time series modelsfor Chinese food grain price forecasting'. Neurocomputing70, pp. 2913â€"2923 [DOI via Crossref]