Document Type: Original Article


1 University of Zabol

2 Shahid Bahonar Kerman


The economy of Iran is dependent on many variables that play a role in its growth and development. On the other hand, rainfall is one of the important factors of climate change that has affected economic strategic programs including those of the agricultural sector. Rainfall variations impact many economic variables, some of which are explored here. The aim of this study was to evaluate rainfall shocks on some economic variables using a general equilibrium model that included the best scenario representing the highest rainfall, the worst scenario representing the lowest rainfall, and normal scenario considering average rainfall. To check the effect of these changes on the agricultural sector, a set of commodities produced by this section is considered separately, and other sections are considered in general. The results showed that the production of these commodities has been increased by about 14% in the best rainfall scenario. All commodities have been faced with reduced consumption from 0.3% to 10.3% in the worst rainfall scenario; this was the greatest loss of products related to the agricultural commodities. Rainfall increased the price of all commodities by 0.25-28.7%, except for industry. Both private and public investments were influenced by rainfall change. 


Main Subjects

Ali, S. (2012). Climate change and economic growth In a Rain-fed Economy: How much does rainfall variability cost Ethiopia? Econometric & Statistical Methods, 46, 30-68.

Alijani, F., Karbasi, A.R. & Mozafari Mosanan, M. (2011). The effect of temperature and rainfall on yield of winter wheat in Iran. Economics and Development, 76, 47-23.

Bernauer, T., Böhmelt, T., Koubi, V. (2012) Environmental changes and violent conflict. Environment Research Letters, 7, 560-601.

Fallah Shojaee, M., Mazlom, S., & Sadeghi Mahonak, A.R. (2012). The effect of climate change on agriculture and food security. Second Seminar on Food Security, 17-18 October (50-68), Savadkuh, Azad University Branch of Savadkuh.

Cabral, F.J. (2014). Rainfall and economic growth and poverty: Evidence from Senegal and Burkina Faso. African Growth and Development Policy, 8(3), 1-34.

Henseler, M., Wirsig, A., Herrmann, S.T., and Krimlyand Dabbert, S. (2009). Modeling the impact of global change on regional agricultural land use through an activity-based non-linear programming approach. Agricultural Systems, 100, 31-42.

Lofgren, H. (2003). Exercise in general equilibrium modeling using GAMS. International Food Policy Research Istitute, Washengton DC, 18, 120-130.

Sassi, M., & Cardaci, A. (2013). Impact of rainfall pattern on cereal market and food security in Sudan: Stochastic approach and CGE model. Food Policy, 43, 321–331.

Sultana, H., Ali, N., Iqbal, M.M., & Khan, A. M. (2009). Vulnerability and adaptability of wheat production in different climatic zones of Pakistan under climate change scenarios. Climatic Change, 94, 123-142.

Thomas, O., Ochuodho, V., Lantz, A., & Olale, E. (2016). Economic impacts of climate change considering individual, additive, and simultaneous changes in forest and agriculture sectors in Canada: A dynamic, multi-regional CGE model analysis. Forest Policy and Economics, 63, 43-51.